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Graham
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Sen. Chuck Graham’s arrest for suspicion of driving under the influence wasn’t a helpful element to the first-term lawmaker’s re-election hopes, said MU political science professor David Webber.
Webber cited a close race in 2004 and his controversial role in a filibuster of Gov. Matt Blunt’s plan to use sold loans from the Missouri Higher Education Loan Authority for capital improvement projects as a sign of Graham’s vulnerability.
Now Webber said Graham is presented “with increased challenges” after last Saturday’s arrest. “But I don’t think it means he’s doomed,” he said.
Graham, D-Columbia, kicked off his bid for a second term last Friday at Mizzou Arena. The event, which organizers say attracted roughly 200 people, came less than a week after he was arrested.
No charges have been filed as of yet, although legal action is pending about whether he will lose his driver’s license for a year.
In order to wade off either a defeat next year, Webber said Graham needs to take a number of steps before the 2008 election cycle gets into full swing.
“I think he needs to get the issue behind him as quickly as possible,” Webber said. “So for example, there’s a legal battle over the urine sample — that’s not good for him. I think he needs to… get it over quickly and have a good session. He has control of the agenda with the legislative session.”
Moreover, Webber said, Graham would benefit by staying away from high-profile filibusters. He was instrumental in failed vote-stopping motions to block the MOHELA bill and legislation expanding midwifery. The two moves drew a considerable amount of controversy.
Before that, he lead a filibuster of legislation that transformed Southwest Missouri State University into Missouri State University.
“I would consider he reconsider filibustering,” Webber said. “I don’t think that’s helpful for him.”
In an interview with the Tribune on Wednesday, Graham was asked about he was going to be able to put last week’s arrest behind him a year before he goes before the voters.
“We began by letting the press know so it didn’t look like anybody was hiding anything,” Graham said. “Obviously I came out with a public apology fairly quickly to let people know I’m taking this situation seriously and I’m dealing with it in a very serious manner both on a personal and professional level. A certain amount of it is out of my control because it’ll be up to the special prosecutor and the legal process. You know, I don’t have the ability to hurry or slow down the legal process. It’s going to operate at its own speed. We’ll certainly work with it in a forthright manner. That’s about all I can do for now.”
One aspect that Graham said will help his political fate is an early fundraising start.
“I have probably around $131,000 on hand,” Graham said. “We had a strong fundraiser Friday. We had almost 200 people there and we raised over nearly $15,000. I am humbled and honored for the support that people gave me.”
He also said that his stand on the MOHELA bill bolstered his support in the academic community because he said it showed he was standing up for MU’s ability to do research.
George Connor, a political science professor at Missouri State University, said Republicans might pour more money into the race than they normally would. But he said he didn’t know whether the “alcohol issue” would be the deal breaker.
“I think it’s going to be his support or lack of support for Mizzou,” Connor said. “It’s going to be his support or lack of support for other issues besides this one. But your rule of thumb is your best chance to unseat an incumbent is the first time he runs for re-election. So any ammunition they have to help them in that task is going to be beneficial.”
“Whether it’s worth pouring in ‘x’ number of dollars, I think I would question the wisdom of that,” Connor added.
Although he’s never lost an election since winning the 24th District House seat in 1996, Graham has rarely won by decisive margins. In 2004, he beat back a strong primary challenge from then-Rep. Tim Harlan, D-Columbia, and prevailed over Republican Mike Ditmore by a handful of percentage points.
The general election result was a shift from previous precedent. Sen. Ken Jacob, D-Columbia, for example, won his general election races with over 60 percent of the vote.
Webber said that result shows that Boone County is far more competitive than it was in year’s past. Graham noted that 2004 was a banner year for Republican candidates and that President George W. Bush — who won Boone County by 200 votes — campaigned on behalf of his opponent.
One of the great unknowns about Graham’s re-election hopes is who his Republican — or Democratic — opponent will be.
The Boone County Republican Party has a fairly thin bench of elected officials to run for state legislative offices. And several of them — such as Associate Circuit Judge Kevin Crane or U.S. Rep. Kenny Hulshof, R-Columbia — are in positions that are already higher on political totem pole than a state senator. One elected official widely seen as a possible challenger was Rep. Ed Robb, R-Columbia. The two-term lawmaker considered running for state Senate before deciding to go for a third term in the Missouri House.
Rep. Therese Sander, R-Moberly, represents Randolph County — which is also part of the 19th District. But some question whether a Randolph County politician could prevail in the more populous Boone County.
Robb said one problem with recruiting a GOP candidate is commitment from people who have other jobs or positions that they’d rather keep. Kat Cunningham, the owner of the administrative-services outsourcing firm Moresource, seemed primed to run for the seat in 2004 before dropping out due to commitments with her business.
“The individuals who might run all have other significant obligations that they would have to make arrangements for,” Robb said. “Unlike Chuck, who has never had a real job, all of the Republicans who might run against him have either a business or they would have to step down from a job. And that’s asking a lot given what this job pays. Reporters make more than senators.”
Graham worked as the Missouri Coordinator for the ADA Project at the University of Missouri-Columbia before his entry into state politics.
Dave Griggs, a local businessman who also declined to run for the seat, said the arrest was just one part of an overarching case against Graham’s re-election. He said Graham’s role in the MOHELA filibuster looms large.
“Chuck’s run-in with the law is an unfortunate deal. It’s unfortunate for Chuck, it’s unfortunate for all of us,” Griggs said. “But that’s only — at least from my standpoint — that’s certainly a component of where we are today, but it’s not the major component. I think the major component is what else can be done for the university.”
Another possibility is that Graham could face a challenge from within his own party. If the candidate is viable, Webber said Graham’s chances at another term could be in trouble. Nobody has stepped forward as of yet.
When asked if the events of last Saturday made a primary fight more likely, Graham said he couldn’t control who would run for the seat.
“It’s up to everybody to make up their own mind,” Graham said. “I obviously wasn’t able to avoid primaries in the past and we were able to survive that. I would hope that we could avoid that going into this year.”
Graham took a sobriety vow when he was interviewed by the Tribune. And if he stands by those promises, the public might be willing to give him another four years in Jefferson City, said Sen. Wes Shoemyer, D-Clarence.
“You own to your mistakes, you are sincere about not making them again and you do those things that reflect your sincerity,” Shoemyer said. “If you’re sincere about asking for forgiveness for your mistakes and sincere about what you’re doing to rectify that, then his chances are good.”
Drunk driving has had a mixed impact on Missouri politicians. Rep. Tom Burcham of Farmington eventually stepped away from the political arena after two DWI arrests, while Rep. Chuck Portwood, R-Ballwin, won re-election. Portwood opened a fundraising committee for a state Senate seat that will become open in 2010.
Rep. Steve Hobbs, R-Mexico, said Graham’s political future will depend on how he handles himself in a time of crisis.
“He’s had a problem,” Hobbs said. “Most people wish for good things for people and wish they can come out of their problems. I don’t know if I would say he’s an underdog. But he’s got a legal situation facing him right now. How he deals with that, what the outcome is — yeah, it’ll have some effect on his race the next time. I think he would tell you that, anybody would.”
“I hope he can work through his problems,” Hobbs added. “I wish no ill will on anybody. It’s a sad unfortunate event in his life and for the whole situation. What do you do? As a Republican, anything I say people will say, ‘that’s just politics.’ I don’t want to be political about that. When somebody’s in trouble, you hope that they have a good outcome.”